European stocks and U.S. futures start September on back foot.
Share markets fell slightly on Monday as investors braced for a data-packed week culminating in a U.S. jobs report that could decide whether a rate cut expected this month will be regular or super-sized.
Survey data on Monday showed new manufacturing export orders in China fell for the first time in eight months, although the sector as a whole returned to growth.
Wins for the populist parties in German state elections added a fresh layer of political uncertainty in European markets, while a holiday in the United States and Canada made for thin liquidity.
Europe’s STOXX 600 index fell 0.35%, after hitting a record high on Friday. Germany’s DAX and Britain’s FTSE 100 were down 0.21% and 0.1% respectively.
The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, was down 0.11% at 101.64 after hitting a two-week high overnight. The euro was up 0.23% at $1.1073.
“We are seeing some natural caution at the beginning of a critical month for markets, with the Fed set to start its interest rate cutting cycle,” said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI.
“Markets made a dramatic recovery from the early August flash sell-off but now face seasonally by far the weakest performance month of the year.”
Concerns about China and weak Asian markets were likely weighing on European equities, said Carl Hammer, head of asset allocation at lender SEB.
Chinese stocks lost 1.7%, led by losses in real estate after a survey showed home price growth had slowed. Shares of New World Development, a major Hong Kong property developer, dived 14% after it estimated a net loss.
Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 index were down 0.15%, while those for the tech-laden Nasdaq 100 were 0.24% lower.
“We’re always a bit cautious when we’re trading at all-time highs and when earnings expectations continue to be fairly lofty in the U.S. in particular,” said Hammer.
U.S. stock markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday and Treasuries were untraded.
The big event of the week will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which is expected to show the economy added 165,000 jobs in August, up from 114,000 in July.
Traders currently think a September Federal Reserve rate cut is nailed on and see a 33% chance that it could be an outsized 50-basis point reduction, but that could shift on Friday.
The weak July jobs report helped spark a sell-off in global stocks and a rally in bonds at the start of August, although the S&P 500 has since rebounded to sit 0.4% off a record high.
Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose to its highest in a month, up 5 basis points at 2.338%, in line with euro zone peers.
Pressure mounted on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won its first regional election in the state of Thuringia.
September has recently been a down month for stocks and bonds, analysts said, perhaps adding to the caution on Monday.
Deutsche Bank analysts said the S&P 500 and STOXX 600 have lost ground in each of the last four September, while global bonds have fallen in the last seven.
Also important this week will be the U.S. survey data, job openings and private employment figures, as well as weekly jobless claims and the Fed’s beige book on current economic conditions.
Oil prices slipped market pondered the prospect of increased supply from OPEC+ in October. [O/R]
Brent crude fell 0.22% to $76.76 a barrel, down more than 5% from a week earlier.