Stocks down, US yields higher as traders weigh election uncertainty.
A gauge of global shares was lower on Tuesday, on track for the second consecutive day of losses, with U.S. yields higher as markets weighed uncertainty ahead of the U.S. election as well as the outlook on interest rate cuts.
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris held a marginal 46% to 43% lead over Republican former President Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, as both candidates vie to capture swing states ahead of Nov. 5.
Wall Street’s main indexes were down, driven partly by losses in industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary stocks. Companies continued to report their quarterly results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.13%, to 42,877.72, the S&P 500 fell 0.23% to 5,840.35 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.10% to 18,521.57.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index finished down 0.18%. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.41% to 850.08.
“You have an election coming where both candidates are looking to spend more and it’s not good for deficits,” said Eric Beyrich, co-chief investment officer at Sound Income Strategies in New York. “It’s also an environment where people don’t expect the kind of interest rate cut as they did before.”
The odds that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point cut at its Nov. 7 meeting are at 92%, while the chance of no rate cut is at 8%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose 3 bps to 4.212%.
The U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 2-1/2 month high amid Fed rate cut expectations. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, including the yen and the euro, rose 0.08% to 104.04, after hitting 104.08, its highest since Aug. 2.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.19% to 151.11. Sterling weakened 0.07% to $1.2975, while the euro was down 0.07% at $1.0807.
“Some people have been speculating that there’s a Trump trade going on or as Trump’s election odds increase, the 10-year yield and long-term bond yields have increased as well as stocks. I don’t really buy that quite yet,” said Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at Yardeni Research in Santa Monica, California.
“I think the election odds are fairly split between Trump and Harris, and broadly, it’s a story of stronger economic growth.”
Oil prices rose nearly 2%, extending gains from the previous session, amid concerns over conflict in the Middle East and as investors weighed the impact of China’s stimulus measures to boost its economy.
Brent crude futures for December delivery were up 2.21% to $75.93, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery were up 2.57% at $72.37 a barrel on the contract’s last day as the front month.
Gold hit an all-time peak. Spot gold rose 0.85% to $2,742.87 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.65% to $2,740.70 an ounce.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bonds-slide-stocks-slip-us-020046047.html